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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-05-25T18:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-05-25T18:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20339/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Moves quickly through C2 FOV. Associated with eruption in vicinity of AR 13016 (S18W42), visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-05-25T18:01Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-28T02:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-05-25T22:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1010
Longitude (deg): W40
Latitude (deg): S20
Half-angular width (deg): 43 

Notes: Glancing impact expected
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite/Richard Stone

Lead Time: 32.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-05-26T17:50Z

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